Field note / 01 · Clan planning
What your clan odds actually mean.
Quick answer: the reported 0.1% Supreme rate applies to the rarity group. Under independent rolls, 100 spins at that rate give a 9.52% chance of at least one Supreme. A specific clan is a different target.
The reported rarity ladder
Two community references agree on the following base bands. They total 100%. Neither is an official probability specification; compare the figures with your current roll screen after updates.
| Target rarity | Reported chance | Mean wait in spins |
|---|---|---|
| Common | 60% | 1.67 |
| Uncommon | 23% | 4.35 |
| Rare | 12% | 8.33 |
| Legendary | 4% | 25 |
| Mythic | 0.9% | 111.11 |
| Supreme | 0.1% | 1,000 |
These rows describe exactly that rarity, not that rarity or better. For a combined target, add mutually exclusive bands only when all count as a success for you. For example, the reported Mythic-or-Supreme total is 1%.
Rarity odds are not Kamado odds
A table may print “0.1%” next to every Supreme clan because that is the shared rarity label. It does not establish that every named clan individually has a 0.1% chance.
To model one clan, you need its chance conditional on the rarity roll. If a hypothetical tier has four equally weighted clans, each would get a quarter of the tier probability. Equal weighting is an assumption here, not a verified Slayers 2 rule. Our calculator therefore avoids a named-clan preset.
How the calculator works
Let p be the chance of success on one roll as a decimal, and n the number of rolls. The chance of missing every time is (1 − p)^n. Subtract it from one to get the chance of at least one success:
P(at least one) = 1 − (1 − p)^n
For 0.1%, use p = 0.001, not 0.1. The number of spins needed to reach a target confidence q is ceil(log(1 − q) / log(1 − p)). The mean waiting time is 1 / p.
| Spins at 0.1% | Chance of at least one hit | Chance of no hit |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | 9.52% | 90.48% |
| 500 | 39.36% | 60.64% |
| 1,000 | 63.23% | 36.77% |
| 2,302 | 90.01% | 9.99% |
Average is not a guarantee
An average wait of 1,000 spins does not mean everyone gets a success by their thousandth roll. In this model, more than one in three runs of 1,000 spins still miss. If you already missed 999 times, the next roll remains 0.1% when there is no pity mechanic.
Do not multiply a base chance by a VIP label without knowing how the game applies luck. It may change weights rather than the final displayed probability. If the game shows an effective chance for your account, enter that as a custom value. The model does not predict hidden guarantees, changing odds or account-specific rules.
Before you reroll
Read the skills on your current clan, decide which outcomes would actually help your build, and set a limit using spins you already have. A rare label is not a reason on its own to discard a useful clan. This tool explains uncertainty; it is not a recommendation to buy spins.
Sources & verification
- Pro Game Guides — clan bands and tier-vs-clan clarification (community reporting).
- BloxInformer — clan rarity table (community reporting; marked work in progress).
Probability examples are our calculations under the stated assumptions, not measured game outcomes.